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作者：xyzxyz 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
许多人都在说在１９５８到１９６０三年年间中国大陆饿死了３千万人。因为时间久远，已经过了４０多年，现在一般混在网上的人们恐怕很少有人亲身经历过那个时代，因此饿死３千万人的说法基本都是一传十，十传百传出来的，本人提些问题，希望哪位明白人提供证据加以考证。
先说一下正常死亡人数。我国现有人口１３亿，现在的人口平均寿命７０岁。根据Micorsoft Co. Booshelf的2000年版的世界大百科，中国１９９７年的男人平均寿命为６８岁，女人为７１岁，那么１３亿除以７０，等于１８５７万。也就是说我国每年正常死亡人口为１８５７万人。那么三年的正常死亡人口为５千５百７十多万人。
现在我国是个基本解决温饱的国家，如果说我国过去三年内饿死了５千５百７十千万人，绝对没有人信。但事实是我国在过去三年确实死了５千多万人。
再看一下１０亿人口的印度，同样根据Micorsoft Co. Booshelf的2000年版的世界大百科，印度１９９７年的男人平均寿命为６２岁，女人为６３岁，那么１０亿除以６３，等于１５８７万，即年正常死亡人数为１５８７万。也就是说过去三年内，印度有４千７百多万人死亡。
现在我们再说一下１９５８到１９６０的三年。当时中国的人口是６亿五千万，我们不能引用当时的中国的平均寿命的资料，因为民运们说那是假的。那么我们使用国际life Expectancy网站的资料，该网站介绍说１９６０年代的亚洲平均寿命为５４岁。那么当时中国的年正常死亡人数应为１２０３万，三年死亡人数为３千６百多万人。
不过还有人说，因为中国饿死了人才造成亚洲人口平均寿命降低，正常死亡包括了饿死的人。对此我先不争论，我们先用外国的数字对照。在当时中国的国力和人均生活水平与世界上最大的民主国家印度相当，我们就来拿印度对照一下。上面我们知道印度在１９９７年的平均寿命为６３岁，我又从Worldlife网站查到印度在１９９２年的life Expectancy为５６岁，１９６０年为４５岁。那么我们再以以上三个数字来计算。
假定用当时的印度的标准来衡量当时的中国，即正常死亡率和印度相当，那么年正常死亡人数应为１千４百多万人三年为４千三百多万人。
假定用１９９２年印度的标准来衡量１９６０年的中国，那么年正常死亡应为为１千２百多万人三年为３千６百多万人。
假定用１９９７年印度的标准来衡量１９６０年的中国，那么年正常死亡应为１千万人左右三年为３千万人左右。
也就是说，我们对中国高标准严要求，按照１９９７年的印度的社会水准来要求中国的话，１９５８到１９６０的三年中也应该有三千多万人正常死亡。就象现在我们每年有约五千万人正常死亡一样。
当然，民运们还会争辩说他们说的饿死３千万是在正常死亡人数之外又饿死了三千万。也就是说，那三年中死了６千万人。我在下面附了一篇关于俄国在１９９０至１９９４年平均寿命下降的报道。当时由于俄国民主化的混乱，俄国男人寿命短了４年，女人短了三年。即使根据这个死亡率，以中国的人口每年不过多死亡１百万人。三年多死亡３百万人。也就是说，如果当时多死了３００百万人就足以对世界人口寿命的统计造成巨大冲击，而现在根据谁指控谁举证的原则我们需要那些说中国当时多死了３千万人的人拿出当时世界人口寿命的统计的相关证据。
韩国的杀人魔说他杀了几十人但对警察提出的有些人他不认帐，这里因为数字太小统计学帮不了警察的忙。日本否认在南京屠杀了３０万人说只杀了４，５万人。这里因为数字不够大统计学也无能为力。可是现在民运们指控中共饿死了３千万人。这里统计学绝对可以帮助证明或否定该指控。因为这个数字足够大。因此请民运精英不要只是听了胡同里的哪位大爷说那年他听别的大爷说饿死了多少多少人就把它当成学术根据。还是应该到图书馆里查查那些年的人口，社会，寿命方面的统计资料，世界的统计资料以及前后年份的资料，或西方国家的官方资料，给我们这些对那个年头一无所知的人们一个有理有据有逻辑的证明才对。
顺便说一下，在拉丁美洲国家中，古巴是寿命最长的国家，几乎与美国相当。而古巴经常受到包括食物在内的各种短缺的困扰。其他民主自由的拉美国家则不那么好。当年中国经济出了灾难性的问题这一点没有人否认。很多人都挨饿，包括毛泽东周恩来都限制伙食这也不假，正是由于国家全体成员共同承受短缺问题。这里可以显示社会主义体制可以在短缺情况下使人口死亡受到遏制。如果同样的灾难发生在印度或非洲拉美那些民主国家，死亡３千万是可能的。民运精英大概就是根据在民主国家可能出现的数字来推算中国的事情。如果当时真的饿死了三千万，那么人口寿命应显示中国当时应该是和非洲同样水平即三十多岁。
Life Expectancy Falls In Russia
NEW YORK (Reuters) -- The average life expectancy of Russian men declined by more than six years between 1990-1994, researchers say, while Russian women saw their life expectancy decline by more than three years over the same time period.
Experts blame the trend on a post-communist surge in rates of heart disease, suicide, homicide, and alcohol use among middle-aged Russians.
"The rise in mortality was related to a number of factors," say researchers reporting in the March 11th issue of The Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA), "including rapidly declining social and economic conditions, poor personal health behaviors, and a deteriorating healthcare system."
Experts at the (US) National Center for Health Statistics at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) in Atlanta, Georgia, working with statisticians at MedSocEconomInform and the Ministry of Health in Russia, tabulated and analyzed Russian mortality trends during the years following the dissolution of the Soviet Union.
They say the overall life expectancy of Russian men declined from 63.8 years to 57.7 years, and that of Russian women from 74.4 to 71.2 years, between 1990-1994.
"In that five-year period, the annual number of (Russian) deaths rose by almost 650,000, or about 39%," the experts say, with 65% of that increase linked to deaths attributed to either heart disease or injuries (including accidents, suicides, or homicides). They note that the most dramatic rise in death rates occurred among young adults and the middle-aged -- individuals between 25 to 64 years of age.
In comparison, the CDC experts note that US death rates continued to fall during the first half of the 1990s. The average American man can now expect to live an average of 72.4 years (up from 71.8 in 1990), while American women can look forward to an average of 79 years of life (up from 78.8 in 1990).
The researchers say that "In 1994, almost all the Russian cause-specific death rates were substantially higher than the US rates: 2 times higher for diseases of the heart, 3.4 times higher for homicides, 3.5 times higher for suicides, 6 times for stroke and other injuries, and 16 times higher for other alcohol-related causes."
Alcohol may be a major factor behind declining life expectancy in the former Soviet Union. The price of Russian alcohol has remained stable or fallen between 1990-1994, despite a concurrent rise in the price of food, housing, and other consumer goods. The study authors believe rising public consumption of cheap, homemade, (and often toxic) liquor has triggered a rise in binge drinking-related alcohol poisonings, strokes, and violence.
Exacerbating the situation are falling incomes (38% of Russian families now live in poverty), and steady increases in corruption and crime. The authors believe "increasing poverty and the dissolution of social controls may have played a key role in rising levels of homicide and suicide in Russia."
Finally, deteriorations in the Russian healthcare system, including what the experts call a "virtual disappearance from the market of certain essential pharmaceutical drugs," continue to hamper both the prevention and treatment of disease.
Still, the study authors believe that recent increases in Russian death rates "may be coming to an end." They point out that during 1995, the life expectancy of Russian men and women actually rose, to 58.3 and 71.7 years, respectively. The study authors believe those numbers could either signal the beginning of a turnaround, or, more pessimistically, mark "the leveling-off of mortality rates at an extremely high level."
In an accompanying editorial, Dr. David A. Leon of the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and Dr. Vladimir M. Shkolnikov of the Russian Academy of Sciences in Moscow note that the decline in Russian life expectancy appears to have stopped. "In 1995 and 1996," they write, "life expectancy at birth increased 2.2 years for men and 1.4 years for women, although these are still the lowest in more than 40 years."
Leon and Shkolnikov suggest that taking steps to reduce alcohol consumption -- such as increasing tax on alcohol -- may help to raise life expectancy. They also recommend "strategies to curtail tobacco's influence," and "promotion of a more health conscious culture."
SOURCE: The Journal of the American Medical Association, (1998;279(10):790-792, 793-800)
作者：xyzxyz 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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转个猛的供大闲们批判 ZT平大峡：饿死３千万人考
