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民族尊严不能靠谎言维持 -- 芦笛 - (4404 Byte) 2004-8-19 周四, 上午4:56 (1132 reads) |
老百姓
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作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
个人尊严也不能靠“谎言”来维持――反芦霸行动之三
老百姓读帖子有感而发，发对发错了地方纯属见仁见智的问题。
大概是老百姓出言太直白犹如飞蛾扑火，在哪里触动了芦笛（芦帝）脆弱的自尊，才招来芦笛“有无资格教育我”的质问。芦笛虽知这他虚幻的“名声”之无聊，却仍然无意识的用自欺欺人的做法来维持其“网霸”的地位，并解释称霸是为了生存（听起来怎么跟“中国最大的人权是生存权”似的）。上周芦笛在介绍中文网上这种弱肉强食的丛林时举例说他当初被封就是因为写了个尖酸刻薄恶毒的骂人的英文剧本，老百姓颇感兴趣，谢谢芦笛还记得发来该英文剧本的链接。
刚才得空拜读剧本，忍俊不禁的同时好像就留下点隧道眼般感受， 再恕老百姓的直白，the student Flute 有点象英国顽皮的teenage ，the Professor 倒象来自中国的大学教师。甭管想象力多丰富的英国人也编不出在英国的大学里会有这么idiot 的Professor；更理解不了这个Professor最后为什么死了？怎么弄假成真（"to pretend is to be"!）的？气死的吗？ 什么叫气？他们为什么这么会气人？其实经历过或了解文革的人都不难理解，the student Flute的咄咄逼人的劲儿与当年红卫兵精神何其相似乃尔――只不过是文斗武斗的方式不同而已！那idiot 的Professor既然是弱智或智残，总得容的他活下去呀，干嘛非得欺负（气）死他？他的老婆孩子咋办？哦，天啊，赶快打住，前两天芦笛刚提到“死之诱惑”, 我凑什么热闹呀！ 老百姓再侠义再会开车理财想助芦太太一臂也是鞭长莫及呀！
还是礼尚往来吧。老百姓答应问问先生为什么他会觉得芦笛的China ABC is boring 和 sounds positive？答曰：没引起兴趣就觉得boring；看不出作者对中国社会的评介有negative之意。又问：什么样的与中国社会和文化的东西会引起你的兴趣？答曰（顺手抄起一本书）：如“The flower net”, by Lisa See （他看完一本后马上又买了该作者的的另两本书来读）。又接着说：“我认为boring的东西并不是说这东西本身就boring，也不是说别人也认为它boring，正如我感兴趣的东西我觉得有意思，但你们也会觉得boring”。就好比老百姓从来不看伪民运的东西因为太boring。联想起先生近几个月开始对股票感兴趣，他这个生手出的盲拳竟然颇得一批网友的推崇，他也沾沾自喜于自己营造的这虚幻的“名声”之中。老百姓也注册了他常逛的两个网，找到他的东西看看，真是太boring（see below）！
The main BPRG BB in http://www.advfn.com/ contains a lot of noise, whereas the extracts from the main BB see http://www.mysite2.co.uk/ .
His BB alias is "mizmaz". Here is one of his recent posters.
mizmaz - 6 Aug'04 - 21:10 - 50484 of 50534
Hi everyone,
Time again for one of my occasional visits...
LOL
BioProgress Progress
Like many I found the Broker's Note inspiring, and here after a few days mulling it over is my summary of things, together with a few figures. Just as the full importance of the Aquafilm purchase was not appreciated at the time, so it is easy not to realise how much price-sensitive information is contained in the Broker's Note.
In particular it allows the NPV/share of each FMC machine to be calculated fairly precisely: this by chance comes to 1p/machine (40p for the FMC machines required to maintain exclusivity for the FMC license... You can be sure that FMC will expect to do better than this). Till this note, the FMC profit could in principle have been 0 or even negative, since no margins were specified. (See my post on mysite2 for details)
I could go on boring you with such details, but here instead is my take on where we now are.
If you look at just the EPS figures in the CS Broker's Note (BN), you would say that they support the share price at current levels, but do not make BPRG a stunning buy.
If you note that BPRG expectations for 2006 are 3X higher than the BN figures, and that the business model pretty well guarantees high growth, you have the following calculation:
Outstanding growth prospects => PER 30 or higher
2006 SP (CS) = £2.40
2006 SP (BPRG) = £7.20
For those thinking of buying or selling BPRG the more interesting question is how will the SP move now.
In September we expect big events:
Court decision
Wyeth license
UBS or Lehman(?) Broker's Notes and NASDAQ listing
Before September there is likely to be more newsflow. Miranda J’s Colgate find promises well for BioTec Film (was Aquafilm) – and must be announced by BPRG. What better time to do so than when the product is launched? Next week? Also, the Broker’s Note is doing its rounds and while some institutions will wait till September, others perhaps, and private clients, will not.
The BPRG profit streams are safer than many. BPRG have low fixed costs and high margins, so profits are not hit badly by small changes in costs or prices. Pharmaceutical sales are non-cyclical, staying pretty constant whatever state the economy is in. The high and increasing cash forecasts in the BN are very encouraging and make a big difference to many people (including me). All this means that whatever happens to the market short-term BPRG can continue its business and in 2006 reach the predicted figures without dilution.
There are risks holding BPRG. What, you say, how can there be? They are that BPRG’s intention, to become a major player in the pharma encapsulation market, does not come off. At the moment everything looks good, but not guaranteed.
Worst case Perrigo could decide to use TABWRAP only for the products which have no gelatin supplier (36M USD sales).
Worst case FMC could just fail to sell NROBE. It comes down to Bio’s clever oxygen-impermeable and well-patented version of HPMC.
If some better encapsulant comes along before BPRG has got the Pharma’s on board the whole strategy collapses. I think that highly unlikely – but it is still possible.
If the Pharma’s decide that gelatine is OK and do not move to the new technology the strategy also collapses. This we can now rule out, given that we know many wish to move away from animal products, and that XGEL has cost and other benefits. (And note the continuing publicity about vCJD, to keep things in the public mind).
What if there is some major snag in the technology that stops it from working? By now that is very unlikely – enough tests have been done.
Finally what if BPRG’s patent position is not safe? We know that it is very carefully put together, and also that FMC, Perrigo and now Wyeth have scrutinised the patents in minute detail as part of their due diligence. So this is a very remote possibility.
Failing a major new wonder-encapsulant – and luckily the regulatory inertia is on BPRG’s side here – there are the normal risks that any one of the income streams will go wrong. This does not matter so much since each stream is independent – and 75% of the expected profit figures will still do nicely.
There are also many new opportunities for this technology to be developed. A small case in point is the BioTec/Colgate whitening toothpaste with strips. The possibilities for WAFERTAB in either veterinary or pharmaceutical use (children, old people & dogs) look very bright.
All these options reduce risk by allowing BPRG to develop in different directions even if the current developments fail. The CS estimates allow for BioTec profits but take no account of WAFERTAB.
Figures
Calculating NPV under the same assumptions as my February spreadsheet (PER in 2009 = 20, discount rate = 10%) we have from the CS Note figures:
(old NPV) 174.9p
(new NPV) 335p
This is making plausible assumptions about 2007, 2008 & 2009 income. For FMC, we have the information in the BN about what must be achieved for FMC to keep exclusivity in its licence, and these figures are a pretty accurate lower estimate. You can be sure FMC would not have agreed to the license unless it thought it could meet these figures. For the other income streams the additional figures are guesses.
A simpler calculation uses only the figures to 2006, and then assumes PER of 30 (since high growth, and high margins, and good cash position) in 2006. This gives NPV of:
NPV (pence/share) Discount/year 10% 20% 30%
CS …………………………… 190… 148 ...118
BPRG ……………………….. 555… 431... 342
These figures are lower (and better) than just taking 2006 at PER 30 because that figure needs to be discounted. Think of the discount factor as being 5% + the risk of something going wrong in any given year. Note that the new figures are better than the old ones because:
They include SWALLOW
FMC figures are now much more accurate & better (!)
Aquafilm figures are better (!)
We have profits & margins on each income stream separately to 2006, which makes the estimates much more reliable.
I will post the spreadsheet with these figures (on mysite 2) as soon as my web space is working, but my advice is that the simpler your calculations the better they will work. Warren Buffet reckoned that he could value a company in 30s in his head.
Best wishes, Tom
PS - will those people (you know who you are) using this thread to pursue private quarrels PLEASE STOP!
作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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