xilihutu
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作者：xilihutu 在 驴鸣镇 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
China in the Year 2020:
Three Political Scenarios
Cheng Li
Cheng Li is Senior Fellow at the John L. Thornton China Center of the
Brookings Institution and William R. Kenan Professor of Government at
Hamilton College. He is the author of Rediscovering China: Dynamics and
Dilemmas of Reform (1997) and China’s Leaders: The New Generation
(2001) as well as editor of Bridging Minds Across the Pacific: The Sino-
U.S. Educational Exchange 1978–2003 (2005). He can be reached at <cli>.
Note u This essay is a revised version of a paper that was presented at
an NBR conference titled “China 2020: Future Scenarios,” Airlie Center, VA,
February 15–17, 2007.
Progressing toward the year 2020, China’s political structure is unlikely
to develop along a direct, linear trajectory. Just as China’s rapid economic
development and global integration shocked the world over the past two
decades, so too might the country’s future political course defy projected
expectations. Three possible scenarios for 2020 are presented in this essay.
Which road China ultimately takes will depend on the interplay of current
political trends, key players in decisionmaking roles, and demographic
factors that will be important in the future.
possible scenarios
• The emergence of a democratic China u A wealthier and better-educated
middle class, a stronger currency, and a more robust civil society, among
other phenomena, lead to greater cultural and political pluralism.
• Prolonged chaos u Economic disparities among urban and rural
populations, rampant corruption among the elite, health crises, and
environmental degradation trigger intense socio-political and economic
crises that undermine the stability of the Communist regime.
• A resilient, authoritarian China u Problems among the world’s democratic
countries make democracy less appealing to the Chinese people, while
stable development strategies by the party-state are necessary for growth
and economic stability, further entrenching the ruling power of the CCP.
全文请阅读：
http://www3.brookings.edu/views/articles/li200707.pdf
作者：xilihutu 在 驴鸣镇 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
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[转帖]China in the Year 2020: Three Political Scenarios
