kai-kai
加入时间: 2004/03/25
文章: 2225
经验值: 10951
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作者：kai-kai 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
talking about high speed train's cost (2)
2. counting the cost
beijin-shanghai high speed train ( use Shinkansen tech )
1300km
RMB 170 billion
RMB 0.13 billion/km
taiwan high speed train ( use Shinkansen tech )
345 km
NT$500 billion
1 US$ = 34 NT$
1 US$ = 8.27 RMB
NT$500billion = US$ 14.7 billion = RMB 121.57 billion
US$ 42.6 million/km
RMB 0.35 billion/km
so, if the first 345km in beijin-shanghai line cost same as taiwan line, that includ trains and equipments and so on. then the rest is for the rail way only. now we can count out how much the rail way cost.
1300 km - 345 km = 955 km
170 billion - 121.57 billion =48.43 billion
48.43 / 955 = RMB 50 million/km
RMB 48.43 billion for 955 km rail way. every each km RMB 50 millon.
RMB 50 million/km * 1300 km = RMB 65 billion
RMB 170 billion - 65 billion = RMB 105 billion
now we know if use Shinkansen tech beijin-shanghai line in RMB 170 billion, 65 billion ( 38.24% ) are for the rail way, and 105 billion ( 61.76%) are for the trains and equipment and something else.
from this we can see for Shinkansen tech the rail way not cost alots, but the train and something else very expensive.
this have a big problem, if the train too expensive, then the parts also will be too expensive. later the maintanence will cost alots.
now we count korea high speed line ( TGV tech ).
US$11 billion = RMB 90.97 billion
400 km journey
US$27.5 million/km
RMB 0.227 billion/km
The production of one express train costs $40 million (52 billion won, RMB 330 million ). this is the cost after franch transfer the tech to korea, they make by themself.
suppose made by themself is half price. and franch made 2 train for korea.
there are US$ 160 million ( RMB 1.3 billion ) for train
RMB 90.97 - 1.3 = RMB 89.67 billion for 400 km rail way
for each km is RMB 0.224 billion
RMB 0.224 billion/km * 1300 km = RMB 291.43 billion
RMB 291.43 + 1.3 = RMB 292.73 billion
because korea line use existing line, and i don't know how many trains franch made for korea. so, only can count it quite roughly.
depend on my counting, if use TGV tech need at least RMB 290 billion for beijin-shanghai line.
counting the maglev cost.
again, look at 2001-07-06 USA TODAY:
Cost containment
The Shanghai government is paying Transrapid about $590 million for the technology and for key components that will be shipped from Germany. In addition, Transrapid says, China is spending at least as much to build the stations, guideways, power system and other infrastructure.
shanghai maglev:
RMB 10 billion.
30 km.
RMB 0.33 billion/km.
about $590 million for the technology and for key components that will be shipped from Germany.
US$ 590 million * 8.27 = RMB 4.879 billion for trains and tech.
RMB 10 - RMB 4.879 = RMB 5.12 billion
5.12 / 30 = 0.17 billion / km = RMB 170 million/km
RMB 0.17 billion/km * 1300 km = RMB 221 billion
RMB 221 + 4.879 =RMB 225.88 billion
cost should much lower than this. because build 1300 km guideway, every km cost should much lower than build 30 km guideway. and the equipments bought already, technology paied one time already.
but the point at will german transfer the technology for build trains in china later?
depend on the counting, we can find out Shinkansen tech is cheap in rail way, but expensive in train and maintanence. TGV tech train cost lower but rail way very expensive. and maglev not necessary cost higher than conventional fast train.
acturely, we can figure out the high speed train has very high profit.
but here we still don't know why maglev " its transport capacity is only half of the latter, and the ticket price is 5 times higher. "
170 billion are not a small investment. we need make it clear.
kai
2004,08,28
作者：kai-kai 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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talking about high speed train's cost (2)
