kai-kai
加入时间: 2004/03/25
文章: 2225
经验值: 10951
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作者：kai-kai 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
talking about high speed train's cost (1)
1. maglev is not 3 times expensive than conventional fast train
talking about the high speed train's cost still have to know a basic knowledge, china has cheap labor, and with high quality. if only has cheap labor don't has high quality, there will not be so many foreign company set up factory in china.
so, if want to low down the cost, the only way is to use chinese high quality cheap labor.
compare with mag-lev and conventional fast rail way, which can use more chinese labor, that's the key to low down the cost.
for mag-lev, depend on shanghai mag-lev line experience, we know the "guideways, power system, and other infrastructure" are built by china itself. ( see 2001-07-06 USA TODAY).
2001-07-06 USA today:
Cost containment
The Shanghai government is paying Transrapid about $590 million for the technology and for key components that will be shipped from Germany. In addition, Transrapid says, China is spending at least as much to build the stations, guideways, power system and other infrastructure.
but for conventional high speed rail system, what parts of the system can make in china? basiclly no. even the metal rail china can't make. not because china don't have this technology. it's because china don't have the huge and high quality milling machine. these kind of machine western country not allow to export to china. even they allow to export to china now, it's still very expensive machine.
so, if use conventional high speed rail system, nothing can be made in china. how can you low down the cost?
is conventional fast system cost low than maglev? not looks like. we can compare the cost.
shanghai maglev:
RMB 10 billion.
30 km.
RMB 0.33 billion/km.
how much conventional speed rail way cost?
taiwan high speed rail way is NT$500 billion for 345 km.
NT$500billion = US$ 14.7 billion
1 US$ = 34 NT$
US$ 42.6 million/km
RMB 0.35 billion/km
korea high speed rail way is US$ 11 billion,
$11 billion
400 km journey
US$27.5 million/km
RMB 0.227 billion/km
but korea line use existed line, not all new line.
U.S. florid high speed rail way plan:
US$ 51 billion for 1000 miles. now they cut the bedget to half because too expensive. US$25 billion for 500 miles. people still argue on it. too expensive.
1 mile = 1.6 km
US$ 31.25 million/km
RMB 0.258 billion/km
U.S, Tampa and Orlando high speed rail way:
a proposed $2.6-billion (U.S.), 144-kilometre bullet train line between Tampa and Orlando that a consortium involving Montreal-based Bombardier wants to build.
this project is US$ 18 million/km
RMB 0.15 billion/km
but Bombardier not make that high speed train as i know.
beijin-shanghai conventional high speed train:
"According to the rough estimate by the Ministry of Railways, Germany's maglev train scheme would cost RMB 400 billion, while Shinkansen scheme would cost only RMB 170 billion. For the comparison between the maglev train and the rail train, the former's construction cost for one kilometer is 3 times higher, but its transport capacity is only half of the latter, and the ticket price is 5 times higher. "
if use Shinkansen technology,
1300km
RMB 170 billion
RMB 0.13 billion/km
the cost low than all other line. even low than Bombardier not that high speed line. but we can't say maglev cost is 3 times higher than conventional system.
acturely depende on the dates above, RMB 100 billion is way not enough. dosen't matter maglev system or conventional system.
only way to low down the cost is make parts as more as posible in china. as I said conventional high speed train no parts can make in china. so it's imposible to low down the cost. maglev system have parts can make in china. maglev system have potential to low down the cost.
kai
2004,08,24
作者：kai-kai 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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talking about high speed train's cost (1)
