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 纽约时报 Former Leader Is Still a Power in China'sLife |
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作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
摘要：
*本周中国媒体大幅宣传江泽民访问沈阳军区，要求干部加强学习革命理论。咋看这不过是领导人例行公事，然而这是13年前的旧闻重提。其中涵意令人三思。
*江泽民仍然拥有最高权力
*由于江泽民的反对胡锦涛不敢再用和平崛起的字眼
*拘押蒋彦永是江泽民的意思
*在公开场合江泽民仍然排在胡锦涛前面。他的讲话也受到较多的报道
*江泽民与军方强硬派站在一起
July 16, 2004
Former Leader Is Still a Power in China's Life
By JOSEPH KAHN
BEIJING, July 14 - With bold front-page headlines and top billing on the main television news show, China's state media announced this week that Jiang Zemin, the country's military chief, had visited the northern city of Shenyang and called on troops there "to master revolutionary theory."
At first glance, the item seemed like just another dutiful recounting of the prosaic meetings and utterances of senior leaders, standard fare for the Communist Party-controlled media. But this report was notable for one fact: Mr. Jiang's visit took place in January 1991.
The reports shed no light on why the authorities had trumpeted a seemingly unexceptional event 13 years after it happened. But editors and experts say Mr. Jiang, 77, may consider himself as having entered the pantheon of Communist giants, along with Mao Zedong and Deng Xiaoping, entitling him to re-release what he views as his great political moments.
More significant, it is the latest indication that Mr. Jiang, who handed the titles of Communist Party chief and president to Hu Jintao in 2002, still holds ultimate power in China and has no immediate plans to give up his remaining position as head of the military. Some members of the party elite had expressed a desire that he do so this fall, when the party convenes its fourth plenum, or national planning session.
The consequences of Mr. Jiang's prolonged reign are substantial, party officials, editors and political analysts say. Mr. Jiang has retained final say on the most delicate foreign policy issues, as well as some prickly domestic disputes, even though he no longer holds China's top government and party posts.
Chinese party officials and Western experts say split leadership has contributed to increased political repression at home and heightened chances of military conflict with Taiwan, while raising the specter of a power struggle down the road.
"Divided leadership makes it much harder to pursue compromise positions on sensitive issues, either in domestic or foreign policy," said Kenneth Lieberthal, a former Clinton administration China specialist who is now at the University of Michigan. "Tactically, this makes it more difficult to be either nimble or decisive."
Mr. Jiang has stressed the need to accelerate preparations to attack Taiwan in the event the island pursues independence, a stance that may also make him seem indispensable to the military at a crucial juncture, party officials say.
He recently overruled Mr. Hu's attempts to develop a new framework for China's foreign policy, when he rejected using the phrase "peaceful rise" to describe China's emergence as a global power, two people involved in those discussions said. The term had been carefully vetted - and used repeatedly by Mr. Hu - before Mr. Jiang voiced his objections.
It was also Mr. Jiang who decided to detain Jiang Yanyong, the Chinese doctor who earned wide renown for exposing the cover-up of the SARS epidemic last year and calling for a re-evaluation of the 1989 crackdown on democracy protests, people informed about the doctor's detention said. Dr. Jiang, who is not related to Jiang Zemin, has spent nearly 45 days in military custody, where he has been subjected to extended "study sessions" to change his political thinking, these people said.
Mr. Hu and Mr. Jiang have not feuded publicly. Mr. Hu, in fact, has remained studiously deferential, allowing Mr. Jiang to precede him at official events, despite the fact that Mr. Hu nominally outranks him. When both Mr. Hu and Mr. Jiang meet the same visiting dignitary, Mr. Jiang's comments often get more prominent coverage.
The leadership has tried to persuade people that laws and institutions outweigh any individual. But China's orderly transition to a new leadership in 2002, once promoted by the party as a sign of political maturity, is now viewed as incomplete by many people, including Mr. Jiang.
In a meeting with Condoleezza Rice, the national security adviser, at the Zhongnanhai leadership compound last week, Mr. Jiang volunteered that he was "handing over more and more power" to Mr. Hu, according to an American official who attended the meeting. The statement implied that ultimate authority still rested with Mr. Jiang, who would dictate the pace of change.
The continued prominence of Mr. Jiang may partly account for the relatively tight political environment, including a captive press and reduced scope for debating policy issues, political analysts say. Paradoxically, the atmosphere is more stifling than in the final years of his official rule, perhaps partly because Mr. Hu wants to avoid any liberalization that could lead to social unrest - and expose him to censure - before he consolidates power, these analysts said.
Mr. Jiang steered China through a period of rapid economic growth and stable foreign relations during his long tenure. But party officials say he has now associated himself with the hard-line position of some elements in the army that favors taking decisive steps to stop the drift toward independence in Taiwan.
Chinese hard-liners, both military and civilian, argue that the recent re-election of Chen Shui-bian as president of Taiwan has confirmed fears that Taiwan will sooner or later seek formal independence, which Beijing has promised to oppose militarily. Bush administration officials say China has recently emphasized using force to restrain Taiwan, even though the Americans believe that it is still possible - and highly preferable - to reduce cross-strait tensions through dialogue.
Liu Yazhou, the deputy political commissar of the Chinese Air Force, wrote an essay circulated on Chinese Web sites in May that discussed preparations for conflict with Taiwan and quoted Mr. Jiang as saying, "We must fight a war with Taiwan."
While it remains unknown whether Mr. Hu would steer a more conciliatory course if he had unchallenged authority, Mr. Jiang's stance leaves little space for alternative views, analysts say.
When Mr. Hu has tried to put his own stamp on Chinese foreign policy, Mr. Jiang has prevented him from doing so.
Mr. Hu's circle of advisers at the Central Party School, the Communist Party university that Mr. Hu managed before he was elevated to the top rank, spent months preparing a vision statement for China's emergence as a regional and world power.
They coined the term "peaceful rise," which they said reflected a consensus view that China could break historical precedents and become a great power without using military force to exert influence.
The idea became a staple of academic conferences and scholarly books. Mr. Hu and Wen Jiabao, the prime minister, both used the phrase repeatedly.
But in March, around the time of the Taiwan election, pressure from Mr. Jiang and the military prompted Mr. Hu to stop using the term, two people involved in the discussions said. Some scholars have continued to refer to the peaceful rise theory in their studies.
Chinese foreign policy experts said the debate signaled the delicacy of proscribing military force as a foreign policy tool while Mr. Jiang stressed the threat of Taiwan independence. But they said it also reflected Mr. Jiang's desire to prevent Mr. Hu from formulating a new doctrine, even if the contents were not especially contentious.
The way dissent by Dr. Jiang, the SARS whistle-blower, was handled by the leadership has also tended to underline assertions that Mr. Jiang remains the top decision maker, people directly informed about the doctor's case said.
Dr. Jiang wrote a letter in February that challenged the leadership to apologize for violently suppressing protests around Beijing 15 years ago. As a senior Communist Party official, elite surgeon and a military officer who is thought to have a rank equivalent to lieutenant general or major general in the West, Dr. Jiang's plea was treated as a political crisis.
The ruling Politburo, over which Mr. Hu presides, discussed Dr. Jiang's case shortly after his letter circulated and took steps to make sure that the doctor did not repeat his public appeal. But it was Mr. Jiang, acting in his capacity as chairman of the Central Military Commission, who decided to detain Dr. Jiang on June 1 and subject him to political indoctrination, according to the people informed about the case.
It is unclear when Dr. Jiang will be released or whether he will be charged with a crime, though the latter action seems unlikely. Some party officials say they regard the detention of Dr. Jiang, considered a hero by many Chinese, as a mistake.
"Jiang created this problem," one person connected to the case said, referring to the military chief. "Jiang will have to find a way out."
作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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