nunia
[个人文集]
加入时间: 2005/11/04
文章: 2184
经验值: 5079
|
|
|
作者：nunia 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
Let me first say that I am a foreigner and it is against the law for
me to engage in political activities here, which presumably means I
cannot advocate or oppose voting for any party or candidate, but can
discuss ideological and logistic issues that do not have such impact.
Further, any website that engages in mainly political discussion
is required to register, but this blog has been concerned with mostly
non-political material and will remain that way.
I expect the opposition to win 2-3 seats. I had previously thought
PAP had a chance of a clean sweep, but judging by (a) their own
view that 83 seats would already be a good result (b) the rather
strident, in fact, insecure message about winning back Hougang and
Potong Pasir and (c) so far the lack of any new ideas that would
change people's minds in those two electorates, instead of confirming
what people already know about PAP, I believe Hougang looks quite
secure for Low, Potong Pasir is 50-50, and some other electorate
(e.g., Chua Chu Kang with new PAP candidate) could be vulnerable.
If GCT himself stands against Chiam in Potong Pasir, things might
go very differently, and indeed the whole election would look more
dramatic. However, whether the system can ever do anything dramatic
and exciting is open to question.
I expect the vote % to drop somewhat, as Tony Tan himself said.
However, the vote in the current opposition electorates can go up
because people do get tired of having opposition for the sake of
having opposition, and not getting housing improvement because of
having opposition. Potong Pasir is getting old, so is Chiam, hence
its much higher chance of recovery by PAP.
I find LHL a more friendly and flexible PM than it was generally
expected before he took over. Consequently, GCT has not had the
chance to add softness by being different from LHL; the contrast
has not been between GCT and LHL, but between LHL and LKY.
I actually expect this to be a watershed election, but not because
the changeover from GCT to LHL. Instead, there is a distinct lack
of change. Given that few of the new MP candidates look qualified
to join the cabinet immediately, and given the lack of any clearly
new messages, things will look much the same after the election.
I rather feel that afterwards, there will be some serious re-thinking
whether they want to have things remaining the same. In particular,
whether the idea of demanding first world standards from opposition
parties while the government system holds the economic opportunities
and tries to pick up all the talent, makes consistent sense. (Please see
http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-XIIfDzQobqO5oCYM9UTvZzgKHH4Org--?cq=1&p=5
http://blog.360.yahoo.com/blog-XIIfDzQobqO5oCYM9UTvZzgKHH4Org--?cq=1&p=27
for my discussion on how this talent monopoly occurs.)
A quick word on SDP's comments on NKF: since the matter will go to
the courts (SDP has refused to apologize), it would be pre-judice for
me to say whether the comments were defamatory. I have however not so
far seen evidence that LHL personally knew about any mismanagement and
corrupt practice in NKF, and while NKF's case does reveal a general
problem of people in control having too much control, it does not follow
that the questionable management practice is prevalent and inherited
from above.
I may make additional comments as events occur, e.g., "big guns" being sent
to a particular electorate. In the last election, this happened in Nee Soon.
----------
added on 1 May 2006:
this has been a very boring election; first there are no new messages from the government: it is all very well known that PAP has delivered goods in the past, and that votig PAP and housing improvement programmes are linked so saying those things dont produce much impact; second, the way the same messages are repeated by different people, like "the election is coming soon, but it is for the PM to decide" "we announced our candidates early; the opposition parties should do the same"; even the SDP internal division facing the lawsuits is pretty dull
the fuss over why the electoral office did not get Gomesh's minority status form, first from his own side, then from the other side, is boring too, because it is too small a matter: he made a careless mistake, tried to make an issue of it, was found to be at fault, now the other side tries to make an issue of it; nothing better to talk about, guys?
I am waiting to see what new incentives will be offered to Potong Pasir; here too neither side has aroused much excitement, and so far the events have merely confirmed that Chiam is getting old and a change is coming, but whether the voters there would actually want to tough it out a bit longer is still uncertain.
the only interesting statement I heard so far was "Singapore has first world cost of living and third world wages", but the opposition has not picked it up. The more accurate statement is that singapore has a polarized economy that competes in both ends of the world, with lower classes competing with malaysia/indonesia/china and upper classes competing with new york/london, it is hard to move from one to the other, and frustrating to watch the high end from below
----------------------
added on midnight 5 May
I dont think this is an election PAP would want to remember; besides the dullness, the campaigning was also quite poor, and kept confirming doubts rather than removing them; 65% is my guess, which would be disappointing but not painful; 60% would be painful; 70% would make the government very happy
with 4 new candidates identified as cabinet material, some older ministers will leave, but I rather believe this is only the beginning of the renewal process; the need for this is too obvious
-----------
added on 7 May: PAP did slightly better than I expected; so who are the current ministers to be left out of the new cabinet? is Jayakuma going to vacate DPM for Teo Chee Hian? if so, is he going to be another SM? a bit too many right?
------------------
added on 8 May: only two days after LHL apoligized for saying "fix the opposition", we hear about Gomesh being questioned by police arising from a complaint from the Electoral Dept, with impounding of passport preventing his return to Sweedon. Whatever the result of the criminal investigation, the PR damage must be considerable.From the PR point of view, it would have been better if "he is dishonest; we want to end his involvement in politics" is understood but unstated.
by 阮宗光
作者：nunia 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
|
|
ZT: 'Election Singapore 2006' by 阮宗光
