kai-kai
加入时间: 2004/03/25
文章: 2225
经验值: 10951
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作者：kai-kai 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
not good idea to revalue RMB
it is not a good idea to revalue RMB. better way is to adjust payroll system, improve woking environment, and seriously execute ISO8000.
to raise RMB rate for exporting is same as to raise payroll, to improve working environment, and seriously to execute ISO8000. the result is the production from china will be expensive.
but for whole country's economic there are big difference between these two. before raising RMB rate have to very careful to count the risk. this year in china, many place raised payroll alot. jian-xi nan-chuan raised minimum pay 44%, zhe-jian minimum pay raised 15-20%, nan-jin raised 15%, chang-sa raised 15%.
so, if raise RMB rate 7-10% that's very high risk for those place.
china's payroll system have big problem. there is a too big gap between high pay to low pay. and looks like the gap getting biger and biger. these days, many place in china start new policy to hire government employee. beijin offer 200,000 a year. chong-qing even much unbelieveable. go to hongkong hire government employee. the pay is over 2 million a year. but the minimum pay in shanghai is RMB 650 a month.
i don't know the minimum pay in beijin and chong-qing. but i do believe no other country have so big gap between high pay to low pay.
and another thing is now the crude oil price go to very high. government should encourage people reduce oil spending. but if raise RMB rate now, it looks like the oil price not up so much for the person who drive car. actualy that's other people pay for them. because oil import company not pay RMB to buy, they pay US dollar. they buy US dollar from bank of china.
RMB at this leve has a risk. it has potential to cause inflation. but if the inflation rate not too high it's ok. compare to minimum pay up 15-20% inflation rate at 5% that's quite good. Mr. hu and Mr. wen handled very well.
now still need pay close attention to the housing price. but the housing price not pushed up by RMB rate. there is no evidence show oversea hot money involved in real estate market.
kai
2004,10,26
作者：kai-kai 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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not good idea to revalue RMB
