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 也谈中共的“气数”问题（四） |
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有重大推理漏洞 -- Anonymous - (355 Byte) 2006-4-07 周五, 下午5:45 (420 reads) |
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作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org
I think what LuDi is saying is that the current Chinese government is a great improvement over Mao’s regime. A new regime as the result of a violent revolution would necessarily be more repressive and more akin to the old Mao regime than the current regime. His conclusion is then that one shouldn’t advocate revolution. This is all that he is saying in this series of essays (and many essays before. I admire his repetitive tenacity).
I agree with this up to a point. While I am for reform and against revolution, there is a need to maintain a credible threat of revolution; otherwise, there is no incentive for the current regime to carry the reform further, especially in the political arena. Recall that one motive of Deng’s reform is that the Chinese economy was on the verge of collapse in the late 70’s.
There is also the example of the peaceful collapse of the old Soviet system. I disagree with LuDi that it was due to the benign leadership of Gorbachev. As the military modernizes, the officer corps and the enlisted men will be better educated and become more professional. They will no longer be ignorant peasant soldiers and it would be more and more difficult to convince them shoot at civilians.
作者：Anonymous 在 罕见奇谈 发贴, 来自 http://www.hjclub.org |
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